The game in Uttar Pradesh politics has only just begun, but the real drama is yet to unfold. With the UP assembly elections scheduled for February 2027, political parties have already started their preparations.
The BJP is currently engaged in a series of meetings. And with the elections in mind, the UP cabinet was recently expanded, resulting in the induction of six new ministers and the granting of independent charge to two others.
The BJP intends to contest the elections in alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal, Nishad Party, and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. Through this coalition, the BJP aims to successfully navigate and balance the complex caste equations of UP.
As a counter-strategy to this, Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav has introduced the 'PDA' formula - an acronym representing the coalition of Pichhda (backward classes), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (minorities).
The Opposition bloc INDIA's precise configuration in UP remains unclear. Although formal negotiations between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party have not yet started, leaders from both parties have been engaging in a war of words. A significant development, however, was when two Congress leaders went directly to BSP leader Mayawati's house to meet her.
Although the meeting itself did not materialise, this move by the Congress certainly injected a new intensity into the political atmosphere of UP. Consequently, the Samajwadi Party was compelled to declare that it is preparing to contest all the 403 assembly seats. Shortly thereafter, state Congress chief Ajay Rai issued a similar statement asserting that the Congress, too, is preparing to contest all the seats solo.
However, certain political events that have transpired since the West Bengal assembly elections are unlikely to be viewed as auspicious signs for the INDIA bloc. For instance, during the Bengal elections, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi took a highly aggressive stance against Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee, but Akhilesh Yadav went to Kolkata to stand in solidarity with Banerjee, a move that likely did not sit well with the Congress leadership.
It is pertinent to note here that during the previous Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party gave one seat in UP to the Trinamool. Political leaders from Delhi to Lucknow indicated that an alliance between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party is indeed inevitable, but intense bargaining and negotiations on seat-sharing are certainly to be expected.
The Congress and the Samajwadi Party had previously contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together, with the Samajwadi Party contesting on 62 Lok Sabha seats. The party won 37 seats, whereas the Congress contested 17 seats and won six. In light of this, the Congress asserts its claim to contest at least 70 seats, while the Samajwadi Party does not appear to be in a position to offer more than 50.
Extrapolating the results of the Lok Sabha elections onto the assembly constituencies, the Samajwadi Party held the lead in 184 assembly segments, while the Congress led in 39. Whenever the Congress and the Samajwadi Party sit down face-to-face to negotiate an alliance, discussions will inevitably revolve around these very figures.
However, there is another crucial factor weighing on Akhilesh Yadav's mind: the imperative to prevent a fragmentation of the Muslim vote. This time around in UP, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi is poised to field candidates in approximately 50 constituencies, specifically in regions such as Moradabad, Saharanpur, Azamgarh, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, and Mau. This is precisely why the SP will need the Congress's help to prevent a splintering of the Muslim vote base in these specific areas.
The Congress is making concerted efforts to somehow bring Mayawati into the fold of this alliance. Else, she is likely to attempt to disrupt the Samajwadi Party's prospects by fielding a large number of Muslim candidates. Many political observers believe that the BSP contesting independently, combined with a potential alliance between Owaisi and the Azad Samaj Party led by Chandrashekhar Azad, could work to the BJP's advantage. All things considered, as far as UP is concerned, it can be said for now that the game has only just begun and the real drama is yet to unfold.
from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/JAIe3q8
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